Register for the 2022 Scenarios Forum

Register for the 2022 Scenarios Forum

Register for the Forum on Scenarios for Climate and Societal Futures

The Scenarios Forum will be taking place as an in-person and partly online conference at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Laxenburg Conference Center in Laxenburg, Austria.

The forum brings together a diverse set of communities who are using or developing scenarios for use in climate change and sustainability analysis to: exchange experiences, ideas, and lessons learned, identify opportunities for synergies and collaboration, reflect on the use of scenarios, identify knowledge gaps for future research.

The first Forum on Scenarios for Climate and Societal Futures was organized in Denver, Colorado, in 2019 and provided a key means of facilitating integration across the climate modeling, integrated assessment, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, as well as with additional relevant research communities including future studies, development economics, and governance. The activities at the first Scenarios Forum were summarized in a Meeting Report (O’Neill at al, 2019). Based on the Scenarios Forum 2019, the state of the use of the Scenarios Framework was summarized and several next steps for the Scenario Process were identified, synthesized in a paper by O’Neill et al. (2020).

The Scenarios Forums are presented by the International Committee on New Integrated Climate Change Assessment Scenarios (ICONICS), who aims to organize and stimulate the Scenarios Process and to foster interaction across climate-related scientific disciplines. The ambition is to rotate the conferences geographically and between organizers from different scientific disciplines. The ICONICS Steering Committee has taken on the role to solicit and select conference organizers and assure that a Scenarios Forum is taking place every other year. The actual organization, specific focus, and details of each Scenarios Forum are in the hands of the conference organizer and their Scientific Steering Committee.

The Forum is presented by the International Committee on New Integrated Climate Change Assessment Scenarios (ICONICS) and hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in partnership with IAMC.

Tune in for a session organized by our MESH working group on Session #42: Advances in human-Earth System interactions in scenario development with invited talks by Alan Di Vittorio (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) and Sibel Eker (Radboud University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Registration is now open for virtual attendance! 

Discussion Series: Paleoclimate Insights on Societal Collapse

Discussion Series: Paleoclimate Insights on Societal Collapse

Discussion Series: Paleoclimate Insights on Societal Collapse

Location: Virtual
Dates: 3 June 2022, 17:30-19:00 CEST
Register: https://tipping-series-positive-paleo-collaps.confetti.events/

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the Amazon focused webinar in a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. The event will look at paleo insights on climate change and how it has impacted societies sometimes leading to their collapse.

Presentations

  • Collapse of complex societies – Jospeh Tainter
  • How climate change impacted ancient civilizations– Ann Kinzig
  • Q&A/ Discussion

Speaker Information

Prof. Joseph Tainter 
Utah State University
Prof. Joseph Tainter received his Ph.D. in Anthropology from Northwestern University in 1975. He has taught at the University of New Mexico and Arizona State University, and until 2005 directed the Cultural Heritage Research Project in the Rocky Mountain Research Station. He has been a professor in ENVS since 2007, serving as Department Head from 2007 to 2009. His study of why societies collapse led to research on sustainability, with emphases on energy and innovation. He has also conducted research on land-use conflict and human responses to climate change. Dr. Tainter has appeared in documentary films and television programs, in print media, and in radio programs. He appeared in the film The 11th Hour, produced by Leonardo diCaprio.
Prof. Ann Kinzing
School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University
Prof. Ann Kinzig looks at how humans shape and influence their natural environments, and what this means for both human health and the Earth’s ecosystems. Her scientific research focuses broadly on ecosystem services, conservation-development interactions, and the resilience of natural-resource systems. She is currently involved in two major research projects, including: (1) the resilience of pre-historic landscapes in the American Southwest; and (2) modelling anthropogenic effects in the spread of diseases. More recently, her research interests  have involved understanding how and when universities  can effectively address societal challenges while still maintaining integrity in scholarship, and how they must be organized to do so. Professor Kinzig is also interested in science policy and emerging issues in the field of sustainability. She was the first-ever Roger Revelle Fellow in Global Stewardship, and in that role, served in the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Clinton administration.

AIMES Member Research Feature: Carlo Giupponi

AIMES Member Featured Research: Carlo Giupponi

Integrated modelling of social-ecological systems for climate change adaptation

Carlo Giupponi1*, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil2, Stefano Balbi3,4, Fabio Cian1, Alexander Fekete5, Animesh K. Gain6,1, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder1,8, Javier Martínez-López3,7, Vahid Mojtahed9,1, Celia Norf5, Hélder Relvas10, Ferdinando Villa3,4

1 Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy

2 Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research, Wellington, New Zealand

3 BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change, Bilbao, Spain

4 IKERBASQUE, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain

5 Institute of Rescue Engineering and Civil Protection, TH Köln University of Applied Sciences, Cologne, Germany

6 Environmental Policy and Planning (EPP) Group, Department of Urban Studies and Planning (DUSP), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA, USA

7 Soil Erosion and Conservation Research Group, CEBAS-CSIC, Spanish Research Council, Campus de Espinardo, Murcia, Spain

8 CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy

9 Institute for Global Food Security, School of Biological Sciences, Queen’s University, Belfast

10 Department of Environment and Planning & CESAM, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

Analysis of climate change risks in support of policymakers to set effective adaptation policies requires an innovative yet rigorous approach towards integrated modelling (IM) of social-ecological systems (SES). Despite continuous advances, IM still faces various challenges that span through both unresolved methodological issues as well as data requirements. On the methodological side, significant improvements have been made for better understanding the dynamics of complex social and ecological systems, but still, the literature and proposed solutions are fragmented. This paper explores available modelling approaches suitable for long-term analysis of SES for supporting climate change adaptation (CCA). It proposes their classification into seven groups, identifies their main strengths and limitations, and lists current data sources of greatest interest. Upon that synthesis, the paper identifies directions for orienting the development of innovative IM, for improved analysis and management of socio-economic systems, thus providing better foundations for effective CCA.

Read the full article here >>

[publication_supsystic id="68"]

New Publication: Building a land data assimilation community to tackle technical challenges in quantifying and reducing uncertainty in land model predictions

New Publication: Building a land data assimilation community to tackle technical challenges in quantifying and reducing uncertainty in land model predictions

New Publication: Building a Land Data Assimilation Community to Tackle Technical Challenges in Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Land Model Predictions

The American Meteorological Society has published the meeting report from the AIMES Land Data Assimilation Working Group Virtual Workshop on “Tackling Technical Challenges in Land Data Assimilation.” On June 14-16, 2021, over 100 participants from the Earth system modeling and numerical weather prediction land data assimilation communities met virtually to discuss technical challenges faced in developing land data assimilations systems, possible solutions, and a roadmap for addressing those challenges, and ideas for building a land DA community to facilitate future collaborations and knowledge exchange.  Read the article to learn more about creating the Land DA Community, associated challenges, and future steps towards better communication to develop the community.  

Discussion Series: Tipping Towards Positive Social Change

Discussion Series: Tipping Towards Positive Social Change

Discussion Series: Tipping Towards Positive Social Change

Location: Virtual
Dates: 12 May 2022, 10:30 CEST
Register: https://tipping-series-positive-social-tipping.confetti.events/

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the Amazon focused webinar in a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. The event includes two presentations on socioeconomic tipping for achieving positive change. We will look into social and financial systems. 

Jonathan Donges and Tim Lenton will moderate the event.

  •  Social tipping dynamics – Ilona Otta
  • What are the sensitive intervention points needed to make the green energy transition happen as quickly as possible? – Doyne Farmer
  • Q&A/ Discussion

Speaker Information

Prof. Doyne Farmer 
Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Baillie Gifford Professor in the Mathematical Institute at the University of Oxford, and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to the United Bank of Switzerland in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.
Prof. Ilona Otto 
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz
Ilona M. Otto holds the Professorship in Societal Impacts of Climate Change at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz. She leads a research group focusing on Social Complexity and System Transformation. The group’s ambition is to use complex science theory and novel research methods to analyse social dynamic processes and interventions that are likely to spark rapid social changes necessary to radically transform the interactions of human societies with nature and ecosystem services in the next 30 years. The last ten years she spent at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Prof. Otto is a social scientist by training. She uses various research methods including social surveys, case studies, behavioural experiments, and simulations in analysing problems related to global environment changes, development, adaptation and sustainability. Prof. Otto is a principal investigator in an EU Horizon 2020 Project CASCADES: Cascading climate risks: Towards adaptive and resilient European Societies. She also coordinates a newly founded Climate KIC Project REBOOST: A Boost for Rural Lignite Regions. She led a chapter on human health in the World Bank Report Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal as well she led a Report on Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Poverty at a Subnational Scale that was contracted by the World Bank. She is a dedicated university teacher as well as she occasionally she gives talks about climate change impacts and sustainability transformation to businesses and other stakeholder groups as well as to school children and young people.

Discussion Series: Human and Earth Systems Interlinkages

Discussion Series: Human and Earth Systems Interlinkages

Discussion Series: Human and Earth Systems Interlinkages

Location: Virtual
Dates: 7 April 2022, 16:30 CEST
Register:https://tipping-series-interlinkages.confetti.events/

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity in a discussion series to advance knowledge on tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Whilst previous events have focused on the Earth system alone, this webinar with world-leading researchers will explore the interlinkages between tipping elements in Earth and human systems. Speakers will present historic and contemporary examples of how Earth system tipping elements affect societies and the people within them.

Moderator: Prof. Gabi Hegerl, Climate System Science, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh

Presentations:

  • The Dust Bowl: Enduring socio-economic impacts of an environmental catastrophe  Richard Hornbeck, V. Duane Rath Professor of Economics and Neubauer Family Faculty Fellow, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
  • Earth System Change and Tipping: The Case of Small Island Developing States – Michelle Mycoo, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning in the Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management, The University of the West Indies
  • Q&A and Discussion

Note: Zoom link joining instructions will be sent out a few days in advance
of the event. If you register on the day, joining instructions will be sent with your registration confirmation.

 

Speaker Information

Prof. Richard Hornbeck 
University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Richard Hornbeck is the V. Duane Rath Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Rick is an economic historian and applied-micro economist, whose research focuses on the historical development of the American economy. He views history as informing why some places and some people have become wealthier, while others have remained poorer, which can provide perspective on what factors might drive widespread improvements in living standards. His published research includes articles in the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and the Journal of Political Economy. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, affiliated with programs on the Development of the American Economy, Development Economics, and Environmental and Energy Economics.

Prior to joining Chicago Booth in 2015, Rick was the Dunwalke Associate Professor of American History in the Economics Department at Harvard University. He received an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship in 2014 and was selected for the 2009 Review of Economic Studies Tour. He received a PhD in economics from MIT in 2009 and a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Chicago in 2004.

 

Prof. Michelle Mycoo 
Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management, The University of the West Indies
Michelle Mycoo is the Professor of Urban and Regional Planning in the Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management.  She holds a Ph.D. in Urban Planning (McGill University 1996), a M.Sc. in Urban Planning (University of Hong Kong 1988) and a B.A. in Geography  and Social Sciences (The University of the West Indies, Mona, 1985). Professor Mycoo is the recipient of three international scholarships: A Commonwealth Scholarship, Canadian International Development Agency Fellowship and a US Fulbright Fellowship. She received The University of  the West Indies/ Guardian Group Teaching Award for Teaching Excellence in 2014 and the same year was awarded The University of the West Indies/ National Gas Company Research Award for the Most Outstanding Researcher  in the Faculty of Engineering. In 2008, Michelle was also recognized by The University of the West Indies as one of 60 lecturers under the age of 60 for excellence in teaching, service and research.

Professor Mycoo is a Coordinating Lead Author for the Small Islands  Chapter 15 of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II Sixth Assessment Report on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation published in spring 2022. Since 2011, she has written 16 publications which address the complex challenges of climate change and offer insights into adaptation and resilience in the context of small islands.
Professor Mycoo’s work focuses on strengthening the interface between  science, policy and practice in alignment with optimum land use, infrastructure provision and environmental management in support of sustainable human settlements.