Discussion Series: Paleoclimate Insights on Societal Collapse

Discussion Series: Paleoclimate Insights on Societal Collapse

Discussion Series: Paleoclimate Insights on Societal Collapse

Location: Virtual
Dates: 3 June 2022, 17:30-19:00 CEST
Register: https://tipping-series-positive-paleo-collaps.confetti.events/

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the Amazon focused webinar in a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. The event will look at paleo insights on climate change and how it has impacted societies – sometimes leading to their collapse.

Presentations

  • Collapse of complex societies – Jospeh Tainter
  • How climate change impacted ancient civilizations– Ann Kinzig
  • Q&A/ Discussion

Speaker Information

Prof. Joseph Tainter 
Utah State University
Prof. Joseph Tainter received his Ph.D. in Anthropology from Northwestern University in 1975. He has taught at the University of New Mexico and Arizona State University, and until 2005 directed the Cultural Heritage Research Project in the Rocky Mountain Research Station. He has been a professor in ENVS since 2007, serving as Department Head from 2007 to 2009. His study of why societies collapse led to research on sustainability, with emphases on energy and innovation. He has also conducted research on land-use conflict and human responses to climate change. Dr. Tainter has appeared in documentary films and television programs, in print media, and in radio programs. He appeared in the film The 11th Hour, produced by Leonardo diCaprio.
Prof. Ann Kinzing
School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University
Prof. Ann Kinzig looks at how humans shape and influence their natural environments, and what this means for both human health and the Earth’s ecosystems. Her scientific research focuses broadly on ecosystem services, conservation-development interactions, and the resilience of natural-resource systems. She is currently involved in two major research projects, including: (1) the resilience of pre-historic landscapes in the American Southwest; and (2) modelling anthropogenic effects in the spread of diseases. More recently, her research interests  have involved understanding how and when universities  can effectively address societal challenges while still maintaining integrity in scholarship, and how they must be organized to do so. Professor Kinzig is also interested in science policy and emerging issues in the field of sustainability. She was the first-ever Roger Revelle Fellow in Global Stewardship, and in that role, served in the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Clinton administration.
Discussion Series: Tipping Towards Positive Social Change

Discussion Series: Tipping Towards Positive Social Change

Discussion Series: Tipping Towards Positive Social Change

Location: Virtual
Dates: 12 May 2022, 10:30 CEST
Register: https://tipping-series-positive-social-tipping.confetti.events/

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the Amazon focused webinar in a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. The event includes two presentations on socioeconomic tipping for achieving positive change. We will look into social and financial systems. 

Jonathan Donges and Tim Lenton will moderate the event.

  •  Social tipping dynamics – Ilona Otta
  • What are the sensitive intervention points needed to make the green energy transition happen as quickly as possible? – Doyne Farmer
  • Q&A/ Discussion

Speaker Information

Prof. Doyne Farmer 
Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Baillie Gifford Professor in the Mathematical Institute at the University of Oxford, and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. His current research is in economics, including agent-based modeling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to the United Bank of Switzerland in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.
Prof. Ilona Otto 
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz
Ilona M. Otto holds the Professorship in Societal Impacts of Climate Change at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz. She leads a research group focusing on Social Complexity and System Transformation. The group’s ambition is to use complex science theory and novel research methods to analyse social dynamic processes and interventions that are likely to spark rapid social changes necessary to radically transform the interactions of human societies with nature and ecosystem services in the next 30 years. The last ten years she spent at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Prof. Otto is a social scientist by training. She uses various research methods including social surveys, case studies, behavioural experiments, and simulations in analysing problems related to global environment changes, development, adaptation and sustainability. Prof. Otto is a principal investigator in an EU Horizon 2020 Project CASCADES: Cascading climate risks: Towards adaptive and resilient European Societies. She also coordinates a newly founded Climate KIC Project REBOOST: A Boost for Rural Lignite Regions. She led a chapter on human health in the World Bank Report Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal as well she led a Report on Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Poverty at a Subnational Scale that was contracted by the World Bank. She is a dedicated university teacher as well as she occasionally she gives talks about climate change impacts and sustainability transformation to businesses and other stakeholder groups as well as to school children and young people.

Discussion Series: Human and Earth Systems Interlinkages

Discussion Series: Human and Earth Systems Interlinkages

Discussion Series: Human and Earth Systems Interlinkages

Location: Virtual
Dates: 7 April 2022, 16:30 CEST
Register:https://tipping-series-interlinkages.confetti.events/

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity in a discussion series to advance knowledge on tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Whilst previous events have focused on the Earth system alone, this webinar with world-leading researchers will explore the interlinkages between tipping elements in Earth and human systems. Speakers will present historic and contemporary examples of how Earth system tipping elements affect societies and the people within them.

Moderator: Prof. Gabi Hegerl, Climate System Science, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh

Presentations:

  • The Dust Bowl: Enduring socio-economic impacts of an environmental catastrophe – Richard Hornbeck, V. Duane Rath Professor of Economics and Neubauer Family Faculty Fellow, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
  • Earth System Change and Tipping: The Case of Small Island Developing States – Michelle Mycoo, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning in the Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management, The University of the West Indies
  • Q&A and Discussion

Note: Zoom link joining instructions will be sent out a few days in advance
of the event. If you register on the day, joining instructions will be sent with your registration confirmation.

 

Speaker Information

Prof. Richard Hornbeck 
University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Richard Hornbeck is the V. Duane Rath Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Rick is an economic historian and applied-micro economist, whose research focuses on the historical development of the American economy. He views history as informing why some places and some people have become wealthier, while others have remained poorer, which can provide perspective on what factors might drive widespread improvements in living standards. His published research includes articles in the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, and the Journal of Political Economy. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, affiliated with programs on the Development of the American Economy, Development Economics, and Environmental and Energy Economics.

Prior to joining Chicago Booth in 2015, Rick was the Dunwalke Associate Professor of American History in the Economics Department at Harvard University. He received an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship in 2014 and was selected for the 2009 Review of Economic Studies Tour. He received a PhD in economics from MIT in 2009 and a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Chicago in 2004.

 

Prof. Michelle Mycoo 
Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management, The University of the West Indies
Michelle Mycoo is the Professor of Urban and Regional Planning in the Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management.  She holds a Ph.D. in Urban Planning (McGill University 1996), a M.Sc. in Urban Planning (University of Hong Kong 1988) and a B.A. in Geography  and Social Sciences (The University of the West Indies, Mona, 1985). Professor Mycoo is the recipient of three international scholarships: A Commonwealth Scholarship, Canadian International Development Agency Fellowship and a US Fulbright Fellowship. She received The University of  the West Indies/ Guardian Group Teaching Award for Teaching Excellence in 2014 and the same year was awarded The University of the West Indies/ National Gas Company Research Award for the Most Outstanding Researcher  in the Faculty of Engineering. In 2008, Michelle was also recognized by The University of the West Indies as one of 60 lecturers under the age of 60 for excellence in teaching, service and research.

Professor Mycoo is a Coordinating Lead Author for the Small Islands  Chapter 15 of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II Sixth Assessment Report on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation published in spring 2022. Since 2011, she has written 16 publications which address the complex challenges of climate change and offer insights into adaptation and resilience in the context of small islands.
Professor Mycoo’s work focuses on strengthening the interface between  science, policy and practice in alignment with optimum land use, infrastructure provision and environmental management in support of sustainable human settlements.

Discussion Series: Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Change in Monsoon Systems

Discussion Series: Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Change in Monsoon Systems

Discussion Series:

Tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt change in Monsoon Systems

Location: Virtual
Dates: 9 March 2022, 15:30 – 17:00 CEST
Register: www.tipping-series-monsoon.confetti.events

 

About this event

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Join AIMES, Earth Commission and WCRP for the sixth webinar in a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. This novel event will include presentations on monsoon tipping points from world leading researchers. Register to be kept up to date.

Martin Claussen will moderate this event.

  • South Asian Monsoon tipping (tbc) – Ashwin Seshadri
  • African Monsoon and potential greening of the Sahara (tbc) – Francesco Pausata
  • Q&A/ Discussion

The talks will be followed by 20 minutes of formal discussions and, for those who wish to stay on, a further 25 minutes of informal discussions on the topic. This event is free of charge, but please register. The event will be recorded.

Speaker Information

Prof. Ashwin Seshadri, Indian Institute of Science

Dr. Seshadri is Assistant Professor at the Divecha Centre for Climate Change (DCCC) and the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (CAOS) at the Indian Institute of Science.

Prof. Francesco Pausata, University of Quebec

Dr. Pausata is Assistant Professor at the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).

 

 

Discussion Series: Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Change in Oceans

Discussion Series: Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Change in Oceans

Discussion Series:

Tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt change in Oceans

Location: Virtual
Dates: 11 February 2022, 13:30 – 15:00 CEST
Register: www.tipping-series-ocean.confetti.events

About this event

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Join AIMES, Earth Commission and WCRP for the fifth webinar in a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. This novel event will include presentations on ocean tipping points from world leading researchers. Register to be kept up to date.

Helene Hewitt and Didier Swingedouw will moderate the event.

  • Ocean tipping points – an overview – Christoph Heinze
  • Recent insights on AMOC – Stefan Rahmstorf
  • Q&A/ Discussion

The talks will be followed by 20 minutes of formal discussions and, for those who wish to stay on, a further 25 minutes of informal discussions on the topic.This event is free of charge, but please register. The event will be recorded.

Speaker Information

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 

University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy; Head of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Prof. Rahmstorf‘s work focuses on the role of the oceans in climate change. Prof. Rahmstorf has been teaching Physics of the Oceans as a professor at Potsdam University since 2000. Rahmstorf is a member of the Academia Europaea and served from 2004-2013 in the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). He was also one of the lead authors of the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC. In 2007 he became an Honorary Fellow of the University of Wales and in 2010 a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union. In 2017 he was the first scientist outside the US to be awarded the Climate Communication Prize of the American Geophysical Union.

 

Prof. Christoph Heinze 
Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen

Prof. Heinze‘s interest lie in modelling of marine biogeochemical cycles, quantifications of the global carbon cycle, simulation and interpretation of the climatic sediment record, feedbacks between biogeochemistry and climate and ocean tipping points. He served as lead author for IPCC AR4/WG1 and as review editor for IPCC AR5/WG1. Heinze is member of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters since 2019.

Discussion Series: Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Change in Ice Sheets

Discussion Series: Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Change in Ice Sheets

Discussion Series: Tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt change in Ice Sheets

Location: Virtual
Dates: 25 January 2022, 16:00-17:30 CET

About this event

This discussion series aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in the treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

This event will focus on the ice sheets:

  • Introduction and moderation – Heiko Goelzer and Hannah Liddy (10min)
  • Projections from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets: insights from IPCC AR6 – Sophie Nowicki (20min)
  • Beyond gradual change: Tipping points in Greenland and Antarctica – Ricarda Winkelmann (20min)
  • Questions and discussion (20min)

The final 20 minutes is reserved for informal discussions on the research agenda and the development of a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip). The event will be recorded.

This event is free of charge, but please register. The event will be recorded.

Speaker Information

Sophie Nowicki, University of Buffalo
Dr. Sophie Nowicki is an Empire Innovation Professor in the Department of Geology and RENEW Faculty. Her research focusses on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, their connections to the Earth’s climate system and their impact on sea level. Her work is aligned with the RENEW Climate Change and Socioeconomic Impacts focus areas.

Through applied mathematics, remote sensing observations and numerical modeling, her work spans the spectrum of local processes, such as understanding the physics of ice sheet grounding lines, or the impact of bedrock topography on ice dynamics, to that of large-scale continental ice sheet models and their use in projections of sea level change. As sea level projections from ice sheet models require knowledge of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that drive ice sheet evolution, Dr. Nowicki is also interested in how to improve climate models in the polar regions, as well as the use of multiple models for projections.

Prior to joining UB, Dr. Nowicki was a Research Scientist and Deputy Chief for the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory (Code 615) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. While at NASA Goddard, Sophie was a science team member for Operation IceBridge, and co-lead the SeaRISE (Sea-Level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution), an international effort that investigated the sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to external environmental forcings. She led many competed efforts such as an effort to couple ice sheet models to the two Goddard climate models (i.e., GEOS-5 and ModelE), and an effort that investigated the feedbacks, processes and impacts of contemporary changes in the Arctic using satellite observations, ice sheet and climate models.

Dr. Nowicki is a member of the NASA Sea Level Change Team (N-SLCT), a member of the SEARCH Land Ice Action Team (LIAT), an executive committee member for the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise phase 2 (IMBIE2), a member of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) and co-leads the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). She is the Division Head for Ice Sheets for the International Association of Cryospheric Sciences (IACS) and a member of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Sea Level Change and Coastal Impacts Chand Challenge. She was invited to be a lead author on the IPCC 6th Assessment Report Chapter on “Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change”.

Dr. Nowicki holds a Ph.D. in Theoretical Glaciology from University College London (UK), an MSc in Remote Sensing and Image Processing and a bachelor degree in Geophysics from The University of Edinburgh (UK). Over her time as a scientist, Dr. Nowicki has received numerous awards including that of NASA Cryospheric Sciences Most Valuable Player, awards for Outstanding Publications and Scientific Achievements. She is most proud of her mentoring award (the Robert Goddard Honor Award for Mentoring) which recognizes not only her work with postdocs and young scientists, but also the amazing work that they did.

Ricarda Winkelmann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Prof. Winkelmann is a professor at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and University of Potsdam. She is Co-Chair of Working Group 1 of the Earth Commission and leads the TIP-MIP intercomparison project (that we will hear more about later). Trained as a mathematician and theoretical physicist in Germany and the United States, Winkelmann received her PhD with distinction from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and was a visiting researcher at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford before returning to Germany as professor of Climate System Analysis. Ricarda has received numerous awards for her work, including being named Young Scientist of the Year by Academics and ZEIT Publishing Group. Her research at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research focuses on ice-dynamics in Greenland and Antarctica, future sea-level rise and tipping elements in the Earth System.