Workshop on:

Characterizing Historical and Paleoclimate Aerosol Radiative Effects

Workshop overview

Constraining uncertainty in past radiative effects for non-CO₂ components like dust and other aerosols play a critical role in understanding climate feedbacks and effective climate sensitivity (ECS), yet their contributions remain poorly quantified. Paleoclimate reconstructions reveal that natural aerosol emissions, including wildfire and dust, varied from the Last Glacial Maximum through the preindustrial era to today, and these variations are not captured in the latest CMIP6 simulations (Power et al., 2007; Marlon et al., 2008; Hamilton et al., 2018; Maher et al., 2010; Kok et al. 2024; Mahowald et al., 2024). This discrepancy between observations and model estimates of aerosol changes challenges the common assumption in many climate models that historical and paleoclimate aerosol preindustrial emissions are well-constrained. Consequently, current model-based estimates of aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity likely underestimate uncertainty by neglecting the uncertainty in emissions. In this workshop, we seek to bring together experts in paleoclimate, aerosol radiative forcing, and climate sensitivity to develop coordinated strategies to assess observational and modeling constraints on past emissions and to characterize the resulting radiative forcing uncertainties.

Mahowald, N. M., Li, L., Albani, S., Hamilton, D. S., & Kok, J. F. (2024). Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 24(1), 533-551.

Workshop goals

• Refine historical aerosol emission estimates
• Characterize paleoclimate emission uncertainty and resulting radiative forcing uncertainty
• Constrain preindustrial to present day aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainty
• Scope a new model intercomparison project (AEROHISTMIP)
• Inspire novel paleoclimate proxy development for aerosol concentrations

Agenda

Sponsors

We thank our sponsors for their generous support of this workshop: 

Logistics

Workshop Location

The workshop will be held at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO):

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
61 Route 9W
Palisades, New York 10964-1000 USA

The meeting will take place in the Comer Seminar Room, located at the rear of the first floor of the Comer Geochemistry Building (Building #15 on the LDEO campus map).

Hotel Accommodation

A block of hotel rooms has been reserved at:

Tarrytown House Estate
49 E Sunnyside Lane,
Tarrytown, NY 10591
(914) 591-8200

Traveling to Tarrytown House Estate:

From EWR (Newark Airport): take the Newark Airport Express bus to Grand Central Terminal.
From Grand Central: take the Metro-North Hudson Line (toward Poughkeepsie) to Tarrytown (express trains make it the second stop).
From Tarrytown Station: either the Bee-Line bus (to S Broadway @ Sunnyside Lane, ~9 min) or a rideshare can be used for the final leg.

Traveling to LDEO: 

From Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

Newark Airport (EWR) is the most convenient airport for reaching both LDEO and the nearby hotel—approximately a 50-minute car ride. John F. Kennedy Airport (JFK) is another option, though travel time and ground transportation costs are typically higher.

By Car or Rideshare

Taxis and rideshare services (Uber, Lyft) are readily available at all EWR terminals. Estimated travel time to LDEO or the hotel is about 50 minutes, depending on traffic. Car rental and taxi information can be found here: https://www.newarkairport.com/to-from-airport/taxi-car-and-van-service

By Public Transportation (from Newark Liberty International Airport – EWR or Port Authority)

For those arriving at EWR, public transportation to the area is possible but quite time-consuming (over 2.5 hours) and requires multiple transfers. From EWR, take the Coach USA Newark Airport Express to the Port Authority Bus Terminal in Manhattan (approx. $23.50).

Whether you’re arriving directly at Port Authority or transferring there from EWR, take Coach USA’s Rockland Coaches to Rte 9W & Oak Tree Rd, Palisades, NY – about 0.9 miles from Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. A short rideshare (Uber or Lyft) will then be needed to reach your destination.