EGU Abstract Submission: Earth resilience, tipping points and human-Earth system interactions in the Anthropocene

CL3.2.6  – Co-organized by BG8/CR7/ERE1/NP8/OS1

Convener: Jonathan Donges  | Co-conveners: Ricarda Winkelmann, David Armstrong McKay, Marina Hirota, Lan Wang-Erlandsson

The UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on climate recognized the deteriorating resilience of the Earth system, with planetary-scale human impacts constituting a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene. Earth system resilience critically depends on the nonlinear interplay of positive and negative feedbacks of biophysical and increasingly also socio-economic processes. These include dynamics and interactions between the carbon cycle, the atmosphere, oceans, large-scale ecosystems, and the cryosphere, as well as the dynamics and perturbations associated with human activities.

With rising anthropogenic pressures, there is an increasing risk we might be hitting the ceiling of some of the self-regulating feedbacks of the Earth System, and cross tipping points which could trigger large-scale and partly irreversible impacts on the environment, and impact the livelihood of millions of people. Potential domino effects or tipping cascades could arise due to the interactions between these tipping elements and lead to a further decline of Earth resilience. At the same time, there is growing evidence supporting the potential of positive (social) tipping points that could propel rapid decarbonization and transformative change towards global sustainability.

In this session we invite contributions on all topics relating to tipping points in the Earth system, positive (social) tipping, as well as their interaction and domino effects. We are particularly interested in various methodological approaches, from Earth system modelling to conceptual modelling and data analysis of nonlinearities, tipping points and abrupt shifts in the Earth system.

A note from the conveners:

We kindly invite your contributions to our EGU 2023 session. In the past few years, our session was very well attended (> 200 participants) online and offline and received many submissions. We are looking forward to exciting contributions and stimulating discussions in Vienna this year in the conference center, online and at our session dinner (to be announced).

Happy new year and best wishes,

Jonathan, Ricarda, David, Marina and Lan

Deadlines & milestones (selection)
Abstract submission deadline: 10 January 2023, 13:00 CET