Discussion Series: Tipping elements, irreversibility, and change in the Amazon

Location: Virtual
Dates: 29 November 2021, 17:00 – 18:30 CEST 

This discussion series aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in the treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

This event will focus on the Amazon:

  • Introduction and moderation – Tim Lenton and Patricia Pinho (5min)
  • Is the Amazon Rainforest near a Tipping Point? – Carlos Nobre (20min)
  • Amazon Forest dieback in CMIP6 Earth System Models – Peter Cox (20min)
  • Questions and discussion (20min)


Speaker Information

Professor Carlos. A. Nobre, University of Sao Paulo

Carlos A. Nobre is an Earth System scientist from Brazil. He graduated in Electronics Engineering from the Aeronautics Institute of Technology (ITA), Brazil, in 1974 and obtained a PhD in Meteorology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA, in 1983. He dedicated his scientific carrier mostly to Amazonian and climate science at Brazil’s National Institutes of Amazonian Research (INPA) and Space Research (INPE). He proposed almost 30 years ago the hypothesis of Amazon ‘savannization’ in response to deforestation. He was Program Scientist of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). He is a former National Secretary of R&D of Ministry of Science and Technology of Brazil and former President of the Federal Agency for Post-Graduate Education (CAPES). He is foreign member of the US National Academy of Sciences, member of the Brazilian Academy of Science and of the World Academy of Science. He was one of the authors of IPCC AR4 awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He is presently a senior researcher with the Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo.

Peter Cox, University of Exeter

Professor of Climate System Dynamics in Mathematics at the University of Exeter (since 2006), having previously worked at the Met Office-Hadley Centre (1990-2004) and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (2004-2006). A lead-author on the last three Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, AR5, AR6), and a highly-cited author in Geosciences.