Large-Scale Behavioural Models of Land Use Change
The working group will support the development of the next generation of large-scale (global to continental/national scales), land-use models that are based on human behaviour, agency and decision-making processes. The purpose of this approach is to explore a wide range of key research (and policy) questions at the nexus of food, ecosystems, water, climate and energy. This will support understanding of adaptation and mitigation processes within the land system in which the land system is used as an exemplar of other socio-ecological systems. The working group will create an alternative to the current range of ‘top-down’ global models (based on macro-economics) and thus, will provide a working laboratory to test theories of human decision making, and undertake social simulation experiments in a globally (inter-)connected world, i.e. taking account of telecoupling. This includes new representations of institutional processes and their relationships with local land users. We also envisage coupling of large-scale, land-use models with other models types, such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), biodiversity models and/or climate emulators to explore a wide range of environmental change drivers and to evaluate the consequences of these for ecosystem services. In practice, we will work towards a common ‘modelling framework’, or a suite of models operating within a common structure. This reflects the many different ways of modelling land use change processes, especially with respect to theories of land-use decision-making. We will explore alternative realisations of these decisional processes within the common modelling framework. All model results will be made available to the broader community through an online portal.
Objectives and Goals
The overall goal of the working group is to support the creation of the next generation of large-scale, land-use change models that take account of human behaviour, agency and decision-making processes. The specific objectives are to:
- Construct a large-scale, modelling framework that allows coupling of models of the various sub-components of the land system, e.g. decision making, global trade, biophysical responses, and institutions;
- Experiment with different models of the land user, decision process based on alternative decision theories;
- Design and implement new models of institutions (public policy organisations) and their interactions with land users;
- Integrate the collective processes evident within communities and societies that moderate individual behaviour, e.g. knowledge exchange, social learning, education;
- Explore the effects of tele-connections on global land systems, e.g. trade, knowledge exchange, migration, urbanisation;
- Evaluate these new modelling approaches against observational data from different sources, e.g. case studies, remote sensing;
- Explore the impacts of future environmental change scenarios (climate and socio-economic change) on the land system, and the adaptive learning of land users;
- Quantify the relationships between the land system, ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, and the consequences of these relationships for ecosystem services;
- Foster an active and cooperating community of socio-ecological system modellers.
Working Group Steering Committee
Calum Brown (Lead Coordinator)
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
University of Twente, Netherlands
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Germany
University of Waterloo, Canada
Stockholm Resilience Center, Sweden
Working Group Members
The large-scale behavioural models of land use change working group is a joint venture between the AIMES project and the Global Land Programme. In linking two Global Research Projects of the Future Earth network, the group aims to support and benefit from interdisciplinary collaboration across scientific disciplines. The group therefore welcomes a wide range of perspectives and members with interests in any aspects of human, individual and collective behaviour in land system models.
Interested in joining this working group? Send an email by clicking the button below.
Bulent Acma, Anadolu University, Turkey
Michael Aduah, University of Mines & Technology, Ghana
Rakibul Ahasan, Texas A&M University, United States
Zarema Akhmadiyeva, IAMO, Germany
David Akinwamide, Federal Polytechnic, Auchi, Nigeria
Felicia Olufunmilayo Akinyemi, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Botswana
Peter Alexander, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Almut Arneth, KIT, IMK-IFU, Germany
Michael Barton, Arizona State University, United States
Dan Brown, University of Washington, United States
Katherine Calvin, PNNL, United States
Alan Di Vittorio, Berkeley Lab, United States
Vasco Diogo, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research, Switzerland
Yue Dou, Michigan State University, United States
Felix Eigenbrod, University of Southampton, United Kingdom
Alejandro Flores, Boise State University, United States
Marta Gallardo, University of Murcia, Spain
Clovis Grinand, NITIDAE, France
Paula Harrison, Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom
Roslyn Henry, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Victoria Junquera, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Albert Kettner, University of Colorado, United States
Jennifer Koch, University of Oklahoma, United States
Carsten Lemmen, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, LLeuphana Universität Lüneburg, C.L. Science Consult, Germany
Melvin Lippe, Thuenen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics, Germany
Jorge C. Llopis, University of Bern, Switzerland
Marco Madella, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain
Nicholas Magliocca, University of Alabama, United States
Ziga Malek, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands
Patrick Meyfroidt, Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Belgium
James Millington, King’s College London, United Kingdom
Md. Surabuddin Mondal, Nims University, India
Thomas Nesme, Univ. Bordeaux, France
Michael Obersteiner, University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Aurobindo Ogra, University of Johannesburg, South Africa
Dawn Cassandra Parker, University of Waterloo, Canada
Gary Polhill, The James Hutton Institute, United Kingdom
Ajin R. S., Kerala State Disaster Management Authority, India
Kimberly Rogers, University of Colorado, United States
Mark Rounsevell, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Bumsuk Seo, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Sacha Siani, Indiana University, United States
Matteo Sposato, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Peter Verburg, VU University of Amsterdam; WSL Switzerland, Netherlands
Chris Vernon, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, United States
Yuan Wang, Nanjing University, China
News & Events
Large scale behavioural models webinar: The role of machine learning, game design & parallelization in the future of land use modelling
Webinar: Friday, 30 April 2021 at 3:00 pm (CEST)Register to receive Zoom connection information The AIMES/GLP Working Group on Large-scale Behavioural Models of Land Use Change is pleased to invite you to their next webinar on 30 April at 15:00 Central European Summer...
Overview: Food and bioenergy demands of a growing global population and societies’ changing lifestyles are increasing the pressures on land and ecosystems. Further pressures arise from the demands on land resources for other ecosystem services, and the variable (often...
The Land Use and Climate Change Research Group of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology is seeking a postdoctoral researcher in the field of land use change modelling. Application deadline: Friday 22 January 2021.
The AIMES/GLP Working Group on Large-scale Behavioural Models of Land Use Change held its first webinar, featuring Peter Verburg and Elke Weber discussing whether the idea of large-scale behavioural modelling is realistic, in November 2020.
Register for this webinar organized by the AIMES/GLP Working Group on Large scale behavioural models of land use change, Dr. Peter Verburg (VU University Amsterdam) and Dr. Elke Weber (Princeton University) will discuss the challenges and opportunities for developing large-scale behavioural models of land use change.
SESMO (Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling www.sesmo.org) is an open access journal with the objective to progress our understanding, learning and decision making on major socio-environmental issues using advances in model-grounded processes that engage with...
A postdoctoral research position is available in the field of integrated environmental modelling in the School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh. We are seeking an individual with environmental modelling and quantitative analytical skills to work within an interdisciplinary research group focusing on land use and food security.
PhD position in land based mitigation for climate change: Modelling mitigation options and trade-offs at the University of Edinburgh
Through this PhD position at the University of Edinburgh, the candidate will investigate land based mitigation options for climate change and their associated trade-offs using a state-of-the-art global land use model. Deadline to apply: 9 January 2020.