Tipping Elements in the Earth System
- Create an international science platform for the study of climatic, ecological and social tipping elements and their interactions in the Earth system.
Objectives and Goals
- Facilitate and coordinate synthesis and review activities and publications on the risks imposed by climate and ecological tipping elements and their potentially cascading interactions, early warning signals and intervention/management options, as well as on the opportunities offered by societal tipping elements and their interactions for sustainability transformation.
- Identify corresponding research needs.
- Convene workshops, consortia for third-party funding consortia and other activities around these topics.
- Help to interface AIMES with the tipping points-related efforts of Future Earth / Earth Commission.
- Serve as a science-based clearing house for these topics for research and policy communities.
Working Group Steering Committee
Jonathan Donges is Co-Leader of the FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene and Working Group Leader on Whole Earth System Analysis in Research Department on Earth System Analysis of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. His research work focusses on dynamics of planetary-scale socio-ecological systems, climatic and social tipping elements, their dynamics and interactions, decarbonization dynamics and sustainability transformation, conceptual models of society-environment coevolutionary dynamics, structure and dynamics of complex networks, nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis, and application of these methods to climate physics and Earth system analysis.
Victor Brovkin is head of a group on Climate-Biogeosphere Interactions at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology and professor at the University of Hamburg, Germany. He was trained as a mathematician at the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russia, where he got his PhD degree in 1988. Victor Brovkin has over 20 years experience in global climate and carbon cycle science. His research is focused on interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate, including biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks. Victor Brovkin has developed global dynamic vegetation models and applied them for pioneering studies on stability of climate-vegetation system. He uses models of different complexity to study carbon cycle dynamics in the Quaternary period, including the last glacial cycle and the Holocene. His groups research has now shifted towards understanding the role of high latitude ecosystems in the climate system, focusing on terrestrial and marine permafrost processes.
Ricarda Winkelmann is a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany and teaches climate physics as junior professor at Potsdam University. Winkelmann is a member of the German Young Academy of Science and contributing author of the sea-level chapter of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Trained as a mathematician and theoretical physicist in Germany and the United States, Winkelmann received her PhD with distinction from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in 2012. Winkelmann was appointed Junior Professor for Climate System Analysis at Potsdam University in 2014. Her research at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research focuses on tipping elements in the Earth System, Antarctic ice-dynamics and future sea-level rise.
News and Events
EGU Abstract Submission: Tipping points, domino effects and resilience in the Earth system Co-organized by CR7/NP8/OS1 Convener: Ricarda Winkelmann | Co-conveners: Jonathan Donges, Victor Brovkin, Sarah Cornell, Timothy Lenton In this session we invite contributions...
The Earth Commission’s Working Group 1 (Earth and Human Systems Modelling Intercomparison Project), Future Earth’s global research project Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) and the Safe Landing Climates Light House Activity of World...
This event will focus on the ice sheets:
Introduction and moderation – Heiko Goelzer and Hannah Liddy (5min)
Recent Updates on Ice Sheet Loss (tbc) – Ricarda Winkelmann (20min)
Climate and sea level impacts of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss (tbc) – Sophie Nowicki (20min)
This event will focus on the Amazon:
Introduction and moderation – Tim Lenton and Patricia Pinho (5min)
Is the Amazon Rainforest near a Tipping Point? – Carlos Nobre (20min)
Amazon Forest dieback in CMIP6 Earth System Models – Peter Cox (20min)
Register for the discussion series on ‘Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Abrupt Changes in the Earth System.’ This first session will provide an overview of tipping elements and extreme events in the climate system with talks by Tim Lenton and Sonia Seneviratne followed by a discussion session.
Hosted by the International Space Science Institute and convened by ESA Climate Office and the Future Earth AIMES project, a workshop held 26-29 January 2021 brought modelers and the remote-sensing community together to discuss how Earth observations can contribute to our understanding of tipping elements in the climate system and help with early warning of change.
AIMES and PAGES organized a workshop at MPI-M to summarize and evaluate evidence on non-linear Earth System dynamics in recent geological history, and discuss how best to acquire, analyze and interpret such data to understand the risk of future abrupt transitions.