Discussion Series: Early Warning Series

Discussion Series: Early Warning Series

Discussion Series:

Early Warning Signals

Location: Virtual
Date: 29 January 14:30 – 16:00 CET
Register: https://early-warning-signals.confetti.events/ 

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and WCRP for a webinar on Early Warning Signals as potential indicators for system resilience loss and approaching tipping points as part of a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping points, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. With presentations from experts that will be followed by a moderated Q&A.

Presentations

  • Niklas Boers (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK): Climate Tipping Points – Theory, empirical evidence, uncertainties
  • Sonia Kéfi (University of Montpellier): The spatial signatures of dryland ecosystems resilience
  • Q&A/ Discussion 

Moderated by Chris Boulton (University of Exeter)

Speaker Information:

Niklas Boers, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) 
Niklas Boers is Professor of Earth System Modelling, Technical University of Munich and Leader of the Future Lab ‘Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene’ at PIK. He is also associate coordinator of the Horizon 2020 project ‘Tipping Points in the Earth System’ (TiPES).

  • extreme events
  • paleoclimate
  • complex system science
  • dynamical systems
  • machine learning
  • time series analysis
  • semi-empirical modeling

Sonia Kéfi, University of Montpellier
Sonia Kéfi is a researcher at the CNRS based in the BioDICée team at the Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier (ISEM), France. In an era of global change, her research aims at understanding how ecosystems persist and change under pressures from changing climate and land use. What makes ecosystems resilient to changes and what makes them fragile? She combines mathematical modeling and data analysis to investigate the role of ecological interactions (in particular facilitation) in stabilizing and destabilizing ecosystems, but also to develop indicators of resilience that could warn us of approaching ecosystem shifts.

Discussion Series: Global Tipping Points Report 2023 – Discussion with Section Leads

Discussion Series: Global Tipping Points Report 2023 – Discussion with Section Leads

Discussion Series:

Global Tipping Points Report 2023 – Discussion with Section Leads

Location: Virtual
Date: 13 December 10:30 – 12:00 CET
Register: https://global-tipping-points-report-2023-discussions.confetti.events/ 

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the webinar series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. The Global Tipping Points Report was launched on 6th December 2023 provides an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. In this webinar several Section Leads presented key insights from this report.

Presentations

  • Laurie Laybourn Langton (University of Exeter): Introduction by moderator
  • David Armstrong McKay (University of Exeter/Stockholm Resilience Centre): Earth System Tipping Points
  • Steven Lade (Australian National University/Stockholm Resilience Centre) and Jonathan Donges (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research): Tipping Points Impacts
  • Manjana Mikoreit (University of Oslo): Governance of Earth System Tipping Points
  • Steve Smith (University of Exeter) and Caroline Zimm (IIASA/Earth Commission): Positive Tipping Points in Technology, Economy, and Society
  • Q&A/ Discussion 

Moderated by Laurie Laybourn Langton (University of Exeter)

Learn more about the report here: https://global-tipping-points.org/

Speaker Information:

David Armstrong McKayUniversity of Exeter/Stockholm Resilience Centre
I’m a Climate-Biosphere Scientist, Communicator, & Advocate, working to understand and enhance Earth system & socio-ecological resilience for an age of Climate and Ecological crisis.I’m based in Brighton, England, and am working as a Research Impact Fellow at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute helping to lead the Global Tipping Points Report and working with the Earth Commission to set safe and just Earth system boundaries. I’m also an associated researcher at Stockholm Resilience Centre, and do a bit of freelance research consulting and science communication via Georesilience Analytics.I’m fascinated by the co-evolution of the Earth, life, and human societies as complex and dynamic systems, and what this means for our future. Particular topics of focus include climate tipping points and feedbacks, drivers and indicators of ecological resilience, and the sustainability of local to global food systems.

Steven Lade, Australian National University/Stockholm Resilience Centre
Dr Steve Lade is an ARC Future Fellow at the Fenner School of Environment & Society, Research Cluster Co-lead for Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience at the Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions (ICEDS) and Researcher at the Institute for Water Futures. Outside ANU, he is Theme Leader for cross-theme collaboration at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Science Lead at the Earth Commission secretariat (Future Earth), member of the Editorial Board at Ecology & Society, and a Resilience Alliance Young Scholar. After a PhD in Theoretical Physics at the Australian National University (2007-2010) and a postdoctoral position at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems (2010-2012) he worked as a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University (2012-).He was an Honorary Senior Lecturer at the Fenner School from 2017-2021, with travel to Australia supported by a mobility grant from the Swedish Research Council Formas. In 2021, he was granted a Future Fellowship from the Australian Research Council.He has published over 40 scientific articles, of which over 20 were as first author, in journals including Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA), Nature Sustainability and Science Advances. He has presented at over 50 scientific conferences, co-organised two conference sessions (at Resilience 2014 and MODSIM 2021) and co-organised one workshop (at Kioloa, with Prof Xuemei Bai) and multiple workshops for the Earth Commission. Dr Lade has taught in over 16 undergraduate and postgraduate courses. He has co-convened a course on Sustainability Science, convened course modules on Resilience for Sustainable Development and on Adaptive Governance, convened an evening adult education course on Sustainable Futures and delivered an executive education course on Resilience: Theory and Practice.

Jonathan Donges, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Jonathan Donges is Co-Leader of the FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene and Working Group Leader on Whole Earth System Analysis in Research Department on Earth System Analysis of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He interacts closely with PIK’s Complexity Science Department (RD4) in the scope of the COPAN collaboration. His research work focusses on dynamics of planetary-scale socio-ecological systems, climatic and social tipping elements, their dynamics and interactions, decarbonization dynamics and sustainability transformation, conceptual models of society-environment coevolutionary dynamics, structure and dynamics of complex networks, nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis, and application of these methods to climate physics and Earth system analysis.

Manjana Milkoreit, University of Oslo
My research integrates scholarship on global environmental governance and cognitive theory to study actor motivations, beliefs and agency, institutional and policy design and effectiveness related to climate change. I am interested in challenges at the science-policy-society interface, including the use of scientific knowledge in environmental decision-making, and the role of ideologies in advancing or preventing effective societal responses to climate change. My current research focusses on the role of future thinking (imagination) in sustainability transformations and the study of social tipping points. I am coordinating governance-related work for the Global Tipping Points Report 2023.

Steve Smith, University of Exeter
Steve Smith is the Tipping Points Research Impact Fellow at the Global Systems Institute (GSI), University of Exeter. He is also a Visiting Fellow at the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP), University of Surrey. Steve co-leads the work on positive tipping points at GSI, and is part of the core editorial team producing the Global Tipping Points Report 2023.

Caroline ZimmIIASA/Earth Commission
Caroline Zimm is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. She works on the international research initiatives of the Earth Commission of the Global Commons Alliance, and leads the IIASA Strategic Initiative, Just Transitions to Net-zero Carbon Emissions for All (JustTrans4ALL). Her research is concerned with the diffusion of technologies and policies for sustainable development, inequalities across countries, and transformative development pathways for humanity within a stable Earth system.

Discussion Series: Economics view of tipping points

Discussion Series: Economics view of tipping points

Discussion Series:

Economics view of tipping points

Location: Virtual
Date: 28 November 15:00 – 16:30 CET
Register: https://economics-view-of-tipping-points.confetti.events/ 

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the webinar series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. We discussed how to incorporate tipping points into cost-benefit analysis and economic projections.

Presentations

Moderated by Thomas Lontzek (RWTH Aachen University)

Speaker Information:

Anne-Sophie Crépin, Beijer Institute at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Anne-Sophie Crépin is a principal researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Center. Her research focuses on the interplay between economic incentives, ecosystem regime shifts, policy and human behaviour. Crépin is member of the Strategic Advisory Committee at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, representing the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics. She also supervises students and teaches within the module Challenges of Environmental Decision-making within the SRC’s Master’s programme, Social-Ecological Resilience for Sustainable Development. Her research links scientific theories about the Anthropocene, regime shifts and economic dynamics and aims to answer mainly two broad questions:
1. In what way does the interplay between ecosystems and socioeconomic dynamics influence the risk of abrupt changes which could lower human well-being?
2. How can society deal with this risk in a way that sustains long term human well-being?
A substantial part of her work is based on small theoretical dynamic models that combine relevant economic factors with complex ecosystem dynamics. Recent publications also include more empirical studies and behavioural experiments.

Simon Dietz, London School of Economics
Simon Dietz is an environmental economist with particular interests in climate change and sustainability. He has published research on a wide range of issues and works with governments, businesses and NGOs on topics of shared interest, such as carbon pricing, institutional investment, and insurance. Simon is based at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), where he is Professor of Environmental Policy in the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, and the Department of Geography and Environment. He is also Research Director of the Transition Pathway Initiative Global Climate Transition Centre, co-editor of the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, a member of the Council of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, a CESifo Research Network Fellow, a Food System Economics Commissioner, and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.

Discussion Series: Methane – possible tipping points or surprises

Discussion Series: Methane – possible tipping points or surprises

Discussion Series:

Methane – possible tipping points or surprises

Location: Virtual
Date: 7 November 15:30 – 17:00 CET
Register: https://methane-possible-tipping-points-or-surprises.confetti.events/

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the webinar series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. We discussed why is methane rising, how are sources and sinks changing, what is the risk from hydrates?

Presentations

Moderated by Gabrielle Dreyfus (Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development)

Speaker Information:

Prof. Euan Nisbet, Royal Holloway University of London
Euan Nisbet is Emeritus Professor (Earth Sciences), at the Department of Earth Sciences at the Royal Holloway Uinversity of London. His research into Modern and Glacial Atmospheres has mainly focussed on Methane in the modern air, including the role of methane in Arctic climate change, methane hydrates and their role in global warming, and the task of assessing present day atmospheric methane burden. Current work includes major projects on Arctic and Tropical Atmospheric Methane budgets. Nisbet leads MOYA: the global methane budget. This is a UK NERC ‘Highlight’ consortium with 14 partner institutions that studies methane across the planet, with aircraft and ground field campaigns in African and South America, as well as monitoring greenhouse gases at a number of stations from the Arctic to the Antarctic and on a ship travelling from north to south in the Atlantic.

Asst. Prof. Sara Knox, McGill University
Dr. Knox’s research investigates how wetland-atmosphere exchanges of greenhouse gases, water and energy fluxes respond to a changing climate and disturbance, and how we can modify wetland management practices for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Her research is done in collaboration with a broad group of researchers and institutions with an aim of helping to inform and advance climate policy. Dr. Knox’s previous research made several important contributions to understanding the climatic role of conserving and restoring wetlands across North America, with a focus on restored peatlands, wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada, and tidal wetlands. She is currently involved in several synthesis efforts including NSERC, NSF, and DOE funded projects focused on the role of wetlands as Nature-Based Climate Solutions. She also co-led two major international synthesis efforts focused on wetland methane emissions, including FLUXNET-CH4 and a USGS Powell Center Working Group focused on global wetland CH4 fluxes.

Climate Neutrality and the Role of Nature-Based Solutions

Climate Neutrality and the Role of Nature-Based Solutions

Overview:

The IPCC 6th Assessment Report no longer discusses the “if”, but “how” of carbon dioxide removal to achieve ambitious mitigation strategies such as climate neutrality (IPCC, 2022; Pongratz, 2023). To limit warming to 2°C or lower, nature-based solutions will become a critical component of land and marine resource management by regulating greenhouse gas fluxes, improving soil health, water filtration, flood buffering, biodiversity habitat, and enhancing climate resilience through conservation, restoration, and improved ecosystem management of our landscapes and seascapes. However, the risks of maladaptation through unknown interactions and feedbacks between climate, ecosystems, and society may undermine the effectiveness of these solutions. This AIMES workshop seeks to identify key gaps in nature-based solutions research with an emphasis on process-based modeling and will build interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral efforts to bridge these gaps and advance our knowledge of interactions in human and natural systems.

 

Workshop Description:

The motivation for this workshop is to take a coupled Earth system and ecosystem services perspective to explore the benefits and trade-offs of nature-based solutions for land- and ocean- based climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This coupled framing will assess the net effectiveness of ecosystem-based interventions and the response of the land and ocean carbon sinks to nature-based solutions for carbon dioxide removal. We will therefore bring together experts that bridge the IPBES and IPCC research communities to explore the interactions, limits, and thresholds of nature-based solutions at the interface of biodiversity, climate, and society. This workshop will further focus on understanding interactions among complex socio-ecological processes spanning multiple disciplines, systems, and scales with an emphasis on considerations of ethics, power relationships, and climate justice in addition to biophysical processes. Technology-based measures such as solar radiation management and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage will not be a focus of this workshop.

The broad goals of this workshop include:

  • Assess how to mitigate climate change through nature-based solutions (e.g. improved management, nature conservation, and ecological restoration), accounting for biodiversity science and interactions with society;
  • Explore the expanding opportunity space for nature-based climate options to reduce adaptation gaps;
  • Highlight ways in which an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach may be used to constrain and quantify potential maladaptation and risks associated with nature-based solutions;
  • Identify entry points in process-based modeling and ways to integrate evolving observational datasets and knowledge products into modeling frameworks.

The structure of the workshop will be highly interactive with talks, facilitated dialogues and breakout groups. Workshop participants will share knowledge frameworks and together identify interactions or linkages and overarching framework principles for modeling nature-based solutions. This includes assessing limitations and opportunities in current modeling structures that affect our ability to make robust predictions and projections of an actively managed Earth System. In addition to bridging new scientific dialogues and interdisciplinary discussions, a main expected outcome of this workshop will be a perspective paper with participants from the workshop on the needs and demands for nature-based solutions research and modeling.

Organized by:

Members of the AIMES Scientific Steering Committee: Mark Rounsevell, Julia Pongratz, Yunne Shin, Pedro Monteiro, David Lapola, Patricia Pinho, Yuhan Rao, and Natalie Mahowald.

    Discussion Series: Ecological tipping points and resilience – when it may occur and when not

    Discussion Series: Ecological tipping points and resilience – when it may occur and when not

    Discussion Series:

    Ecological tipping points and resilience: when it may occur and when not

    Location: Virtual
    Dates: 29 September 14:00 – 15:30 CEST
    Register:  https://ecological-tipping-points-and-resilience.confetti.events/

    Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and WCRP for the webinar series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. This event discussed different concepts for ecological systems change including regime shifts and resilience loss and if thresholds exist for biodiversity change.

    Presentations

    Moderated by Awaz Mohamed (University of Hamburg)

    Speaker Information:

    Juan Rocha, Stockholm Resilience Centre
    Juan C. Rocha is a research scientist at the Stockholm Resilience Centre where he co-leads the theme on complex systems. His research questions are oriented to understanding critical transitions: from regime shifts in ecological systems, to collective action in society. Currently he focuses on the idea of cascading effects: how a critical transition in an ecosystem in the world can impact the likelihood of other ecosystems tipping over. Juan is interested in methods for identifying resilience surrogates –good observables that can tell you how resilient a system is– as well as misperception of feedbacks and their consequences. He finds inspiration in complex systems science, the use of mathematical models, networks and other computational methods to understand social and ecological complexity.

     

    Prof. Helmut Hillebrand, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg
    Professor for Plankton Ecology at the Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment University of Oldenburg. He is very interested in the mechanisms that constrain and alter biodiversity in a variety of ecosystems. He likes to think about the complex nature of biodiversity change and ecological stability. Trained as an experimental ecologist, he has focused more on research syntheses and data analyses in recent years. Since 2017 he is founding director of the Helmholtz-Institute for Functional Marine Biodiversity at the University of Oldenburg [HIFMB], a collaboration between the University and the Alfred-Wegener-Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research. HIFMB focuses on interdisciplinary projects on marine biodiversity and conservation.